THIS WEEK'S HOT TOPIC
Next week, the 45th edition of The Photography Show, presented annually by the Association of International Photography Art Dealers (AIPAD), opens in New York. It’s the longest-running fair of its kind in the world, and one of the most important—a reliable bellwether for the photo market and the trends that drive it.
Seventy-seven exhibitors will pile into the Park Avenue Armory for the show, up from 64 in 2025. The increase will bring the fair to its “optimal size,” organizers explained in an announcement last December, citing “several years of refinement.” It also reflects a renewed commitment to gender parity for the event, which has been historically dominated by male dealers (a subject of quiet chatter in recent years). Over a third of participating organizations this year are women-led, founded, or both.
But exhibitor numbers are one thing; money is another. The photography market has seen a long, slow dip over the last 25 years. The trend is most apparent at auction, after sales peaked at $230.5m in 2004. By 2024, that figure had dropped to just $116.9m. The number of auctions also shrank, and many of those that remained had been relegated to online. Art advisor Ralph DeLuca put it succinctly in the opening line of an essay on the topic late last year: “There’s no way to sugarcoat it: from a broad view, the photography market looks fucked.”
The declining trend in photo auction sales has evened out in the last couple of years, suggesting that there may be room for optimism, too. The Photography Show notched record attendance numbers in 2025, as did Photo London. Paris Photo—the third of the industry’s big three fairs—did the same thing the year before that. In other words, the appetite for photography seems to be growing at the ground level. We’ll see if next week’s AIPAD show signals that other market indicators are starting to follow.
3…THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT DETERMINING AUTHENTICITY
1
Do your homework—provenance matters. Whether you’re bidding at auction or closing a private sale, understanding where a work comes from is essential. Provenance, or the documented history of ownership, can help substantiate authenticity and, in many cases, enhance value. When reviewing a lot, look closely at the ownership history provided by the auction house. If everyone on the list is deceased, that could be a red flag. And if the artist has a catalogue raisonné, it’s worth checking whether the work is included. Many are available through art libraries or online, which can be more practical than purchasing a copy. A strong provenance doesn’t guarantee authenticity, but a weak or incomplete one should give you pause.
2
Be wary of prices that seem too good to be true. (This is especially the case on non-art-related websites like eBay.) While stories of overlooked masterpieces turning up in unexpected places do exist, they are rare. More often, unusually low prices signal uncertainty around attribution or quality. A work listed as being “in the style of” or “after” an artist is not the same as an authenticated piece by that artist. Whether you’re browsing a regional auction house or scrolling through online marketplaces, a healthy level of skepticism will serve you well. When in doubt, ask questions about condition, provenance, and how the work has been attributed.
3
A certificate of authenticity isn’t always definitive. While a certificate from a reputable gallery, artist, or estate can be meaningful, not all certificates carry equal weight. Documents can be produced without real authority, especially on secondary marketplaces. In many cases, a clear paper trail—past invoices, exhibition history, or inclusion in a catalogue raisonné—offers stronger support. Expert opinion also plays a key role: specialists, scholars, or the artist’s estate are often the most reliable sources when questions of authenticity arise. And of course, there’s the artists themselves. Who better to confirm or deny an artwork’s genuineness than them?
A NUMBER TO KNOW
32.6%
The share of photography lots that hammered above their low estimate at the Big Three auction houses (Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips) in 2025, per data from ArtTactic. That’s the second-highest percentage in the past 10 years, barely behind the equivalent figure in 2024 (33.5%).
Why does this matter? Because it shows that the auction market for photos has been recalibrating around lower volumes at higher values (aka less selling but for more money). In fact, you have to go back a full decade, to 2015, to find the last time the major houses sold fewer photo lots than they did last year. Yet the average sale price of a work in this category also grew to $29,660, a 20% increase from 2024, while the sell-through rate reached a 10-year high (80.9%).
Just as in the wider auction market for art lately, a healthy chunk of photo collectors’ bidding gravitated toward the past in 2025. Modern photos—those made by artists born from 1900-50, in ArtTactic’s system—generated $31.2m, or two-thirds of all sales in the category. Lots by photographers born before 1900 made another $7.4m, the second-highest total for vintage photography since 2020.
The main lesson from all these interlocking numbers is simple: no matter the art medium, time-tested artists look awfully enticing whenever market conditions are tight—even if you’re looking at them through the lens of a camera.
—Tim Schneider / The Gray Market
ASK: ACCESS SOPHISTICATED KNOWLEDGE
Robert F. ASKed: What is the difference between an editioned print and an artist’s print? Is one more valuable than the other?
NoReserve: Here is a starting point, as the nuances of photography and printmaking throughout history are vast and varied, and what's described here won't capture every exception, historical context, or medium-specific convention you may encounter.
Editioned prints are made or authorized by an artist as part of a numbered run, where a singular image becomes a multiple. Note that not all photographic or print making methods are reproducible, such as Polaroids, Rayographs or monotypes. Since the development of the art and photography market as we know it, artists typically print limited batches to authorize which reproductions are "official" and therefore valuable, rather than facsimiles, which are not. Of course this does not always apply, especially to works on paper from say, 100 years ago.
The edition size may be determined at the time of production, or artists may issue further editions or new editions in different sizes, later on. These days, it's common practice for the artist's signature, the date of the print and figures explaining the number of prints in the edition and where in the series that particular print falls—i.e., 2/10–to be written in the margins or verso.
An artist's proof (AP), by comparison, belongs to an even smaller set—sometimes even just one or two—that they have set aside, perhaps for future reference or personal use. Sometimes the AP has been worked on directly by the artist, where the editions are handled by their team. Occasionally, artists and galleries will sell these prints after the editioned versions are bought out. There may be tiered pricing for the editions versus the AP, and to some, APs are more desirable for their perceived connection to the creator.
Have your own question for the NoReserve team? Reply to this email or reach out to us on Instagram, @no.reserve. Readers whose submissions we choose get a special prize—six free months of our paid newsletter, The Baer Faxt.
2 MINUTES WITH…
In photography, is the printing itself part of the artistry? Thomas Zander, owner of an eponymous gallery in Cologne, argues that it is. For him, the topic raises an even larger question about how changing printing technologies impact the value—and our understanding—of an artist’s work. Hear his take below, or head ➡️ here to watch our full conversation on the state of the photography market, presented on the occasion of Paris Photo 2025.
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